Projection Bias
Assuming others share your beliefs and values
What is it?
Projection bias encompasses two related phenomena: assuming other people share our preferences, beliefs, and values (social projection), and assuming our future selves will have the same preferences as our current selves (intertemporal projection). Both stem from the difficulty of imagining perspectives different from our current one. Social projection leads product developers to build what they want rather than what customers need, negotiators to misjudge counterparts' priorities, and managers to assume employees are motivated by the same things they are. Intertemporal projection causes us to overestimate how much we'll enjoy future purchases based on current desires (shopping hungry leads to buying too much food), underestimate how our preferences will change (career choices made at 20 may not fit at 40), and make commitments our future selves will regret. Research shows we struggle to imagine states different from our current one—when full, we can't imagine being hungry. In organizations, projection bias contributes to failed products, ineffective incentives, and communication breakdowns. Counteracting it requires actively seeking input from diverse perspectives, conducting actual user research rather than imagining user needs, and building in flexibility for changing preferences.
Example
Designing a product based on what you want, not customer research. Shopping hungry and buying too much food. Assuming employees are motivated by what motivates you.
References
Loewenstein, G., O'Donoghue, T., & Rabin, M. (2003). Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(4), 1209-1248.
Van Boven, L., & Loewenstein, G. (2003). Social Projection of Transient Drive States. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 29(9), 1159-1168.
How to Prevent It
Do others actually share my preferences?
Have I actually asked people what they want?
Am I assuming others think like me without evidence?
What might someone with different values prefer?
How different is my target audience from myself?
Conduct surveys or interviews to validate assumptions.
Test ideas with diverse groups before committing.
Create user personas based on research, not assumptions.
Observe actual behavior rather than relying on intuition.
Include team members with different backgrounds in decisions.
Related Decisions
Relocating to a new city
May project current needs onto future self
Committing to a relationship
May assume partner shares your values
Setting pricing strategy
May assume customers value same things you do
Making family planning decisions
May assume partner has same timeline/expectations
Making a major life decision
Current state projected onto future self