Projection Bias

What is it?

Projection bias covers two related phenomena: assuming other people share our preferences, beliefs and values (social projection), and assuming our future selves will have the same preferences as our current selves (intertemporal projection). Both stem from the difficulty of imagining perspectives different from our current one. Social projection leads product developers to build what they want rather than what customers need, negotiators to misjudge counterparts' priorities, and managers to assume employees are motivated by the same things they are. Intertemporal projection leads us to overestimate how much we'll enjoy future purchases based on current desires (shopping hungry tends to mean buying too much food), to underestimate how our preferences will change (career choices made at 20 may not fit at 40), and to make commitments our future selves will regret. Studies of "hot" and "cold" states suggest we struggle to imagine states different from our current one: when full, it is hard to imagine being hungry. In organizations, projection bias contributes to failed products, ineffective incentives and communication breakdowns. Counteracting it requires actively seeking input from diverse perspectives, conducting actual user research rather than imagining user needs, and building in flexibility for changing preferences.