Hot-cold Empathy Gap

What is it?

The hot-cold empathy gap, researched extensively by George Loewenstein, describes our inability to accurately predict how we'll feel and behave in different emotional states. When "cold" (calm, satiated, comfortable), we underestimate the influence of "hot" states (angry, hungry, aroused, in pain) on our decisions. When hot, we underestimate how differently we'll feel when cold. This creates systematic prediction errors. Satiated, we underestimate how much we'll eat when hungry (and overbuy groceries). Calm, we underestimate how anger will affect our negotiations. Comfortable, we underestimate how pain will affect our judgment. The gap works in both directions: while experiencing strong emotions, we fail to recognize how temporary they are and make decisions we'll later regret. The empathy gap also affects our understanding of others: we struggle to empathize with someone in a different emotional state. Drug addicts in withdrawal are judged harshly by those who've never experienced cravings. Strategies to bridge the gap include making important decisions in neutral states, building in cooling-off periods before consequential choices, using precommitment devices, and actively imagining (through visualization or even mild exposure) how the target emotional state might affect judgment.